12 Months of Bitcoin – Crash to March and Technical Analysis #36

About 10 years ago everyone was crazy about Poker. Your cousin’s an online expert. Your friend’s making a run for the World Series. Your neighbour’s got a game going every Tuesday night and hey, how come you never noticed that Casino down the road from your house? Game there every Sunday afternoon. €25 Buy-in. Gaming tables and pristine metal poker sets with solid clay chips appear for sale in the shop next door. There’s a tournament Wednesday night in your local pub. Everyone’s an expert. Tells you about odds, percentages, card counting and player psychology. Hey, a good player doesn’t even need to look at his cards, right? And now that fella you can’t stand at work is shouting across the room about how he won €1000 last night on PaddyPower. What a prick. Now he’s in rehab, good riddance.

And here it’s the same with Bitcoin. Everyone knows what’s going to pump and dump. Where it’s going. Technical Analysis. The Fibonacci sequence. Correspondence with world events and stock market volatility. Here comes the Chinese New Year, definitely be a Bull Run then. People in Asia saving their money, religion, year of the monkey, the boom goes on. Hear bout that guy threw out his laptop five years ago? Had some Bitcoin on it. Wasn’t worth much at the time. Could be worth €200 million now. He wants to buy the whole dump where he thinks it might be. What a fool, you gotta be smart with your crypto. Get yourself a diverse portfolio. Don’t be exposed. Join the telegram groups. Keep up to date on Twitter. John McAffe charges $125,000 to recommend a coin. Gotta follow that guy. Up, up, up she goes. Don’t ignore the FOMO. That’s God sending you tips from financial heaven.

And then Bitcoin crashes. The begrudgers are delighted. What did you expect? But of course that was going to happen. Anybody could tell. Now the panic starts. People that bought at the top are getting out at the bottom. Maxxed out our credit cards. Topped up that loan. How we gonna pay that back? If someone had gotten five Bitcoin at €20,000 then they would have invested €100,000. Then it crashes by about 75% and so your savvy investor is now down 75k – in about a week. Queasy situation. Take the hit and get out now. Heard a fella say yesterday it’s all going to zero. Guys at the top been manipulating the price, scam along. Maybe it’ll bounce back? Maybe it’s a glitch? Don’t think so. Jane missed her rent last week, on a warning. One more and she’s out. Kids going to college next year. Can still save half if we’re lucky. Better sell now. Charlie checked his this morning and it’s gone. Something on the Internet. They told him they’d give him free Bitcoin if he signed up. Next thing you know – whoosh! His whole cryptowallet is empty. Then Mary’s phone got hacked. They did it through the phone company. Conned ‘em out of a new sim card. Identify theft. Easy money. No comeback, no regulation. Get out now. It’s all going to zero. See, there goes another €1000. Christ, sell it. Sell it. Sell it. Sell it all now.

Best,

Mick.

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